The same observation

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moves above 5%.

Follow the fiscal-fragility reading through the loop.

Belief

Above 5% means investors are losing confidence in U.S. debt.

Perception

This looks like an early debt-crisis signal.

Action

Compare the yield with inflation, the Fed path, auctions, and demand.

Outcome

Suppose demand holds while the yield moves with policy expectations.

Revised belief

A 10-year yield above 5% alone does not establish fiscal collapse.

The revised belief returns to the stack A dotted line returns from the revised belief to the beginning of the sequence.